AlphaKing.com Performance FAQ:
Q: What is your track record for index buy and sell signals?
A: Type in NASDAQ in the Free Stock Analyzer, and it will show returns for all trades since 1999. This will mimic returns of our Index Portfolio, with our Q/8 and Q/25 portfolios expected to do even better, especially on the bigger moves.
Since 1973 the NASDAQ has a Hit Rate of 51%, with average profit 17%, versus average loss 3%, with 3.1 trades on average each year.
Our system works off those stats, aiming to outperform by the average profit on wins spanking the smaller losses of the failed signals.
The Performance page shows returns for our 3 portfolios, as well as stocks within stock indexes, including our AK100, using the AK Trading indicator to time entry and exit. Those trading stats show what can be achieved by accepting the 51% hit rate of our stock market signals, and correspoding average profit/loss ratios.
While past performance is certainly no guarantee of future success, and we certaintly don't expect the exact same pattern over the next 3 decades that we saw over the past 3, we do feel that the stock market will have some great up years (terrific for trend followers); some really bad down years (terrific for trend followers); with some sideways to no where periods (difficult for trend followers); thus in that way we do expect the future to be something like the past, and believe that over time our trading stats will mimic past returns of our indicators.
Q: Is Elliott Wave important in your trading decisions? How would not using it affect performance?
A: I would say that performance of our system would not be hurt at all if I never used Elliott Wave and simply entered trades using our system. Elliott Wave is good at analyzing the big picture, which can be a thing of beauty when the market is running. Elliott Wave really shows investor sentiment in chart form, and is helpful at highlighting dangers of a reversal after extreme moves at tops and bottoms, such as what happened in early 2000 (top), and February 2009 (bottom.) A pure trend following approach would have you fully invested going into both blow-off moves, only to get your portfolio killed on the reversal. Elliott Wave was one investment system that highlighted the danger. Like January, 2010: the risk of return to a bear market, and deflationary collapse, is extremely high per Elliott Wave analysis, yet the stock market trend is up, and few are preparing for such a dramatic reversal of fortunes. Of course Elliott could be dead wrong, but then again some folks want to know when they are skating on thin ice.
Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success
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