AlphaKing.com
Weekly Trend and Trade Review	February 5, 2010
Trader Talk The short term momentum oscillators remain negative, confirming the bearish stance of the AlphaKing Trading indicator. The accumulation/distribution profile remains negative, with zero accumulation days since the sell signal was issued. The leadership profile remains negative, with 91 new 52 week highs, versus 143 new 52 week lows. The 4% rule remains negative, while Federal Reserve policy remains positive. The VXO volatility indicator closed the week at 25.4, showing little movement on the week. The Elliott Wave crash run has begun in earnest, though this will be a very long process, with lots of countertrend rallies along the way, with the primary message: the trend has turned from up to down, and the ultimate low should be well below the March 2009 bottom. Traditional seasonal trends have us looking for a rally in the first quarter. The Presidential cycle suggests a grim 2010. The Benner-Fibonacci cycle is fast approaching the end of the bullish period, with a crashing bear going forward expected into 2011. The AlphaKing combination cycle sees a rally turn going into February. Summary: The stock indexes continue to trend lower, and we have today’s close as week three of a four to five week crash run to test and eventually break below the 200 day moving averages for the stock indexes (purple lines in the charts below.) The AK Trading Indicator turned negative earlier in the week, and so too did the number of stocks making news highs and lows. When all the investment ducks are screaming the same message, one better listen, for that is the one characteristic present in all the big moves seen throughout history. The shorter term pattern continues to leave the door open to a recovery rally to retest the 50 day moving averages, though a downside follow through any time next week would nix that bull nirvana hope. Many sectors and currencies have moved into the crash position, so bad things can happen from this precarious technical set-up. We plan to aggressively add to our short positions and inverse ETFs on any rally attempt, no matter when it lands, as our research shows the red ink blood-letting selling has much further to go, with the troubles in EURO-land the tip of a very large debt troubled investment iceberg. The message of the markets is a clear one: sell into rallies, we’ve seen nothing yet, and watch out below! Have a great weekend! 401K investors should be fully invested in a money market fund. The Index portfolio is ¼ invested in the inverse ETF QID, which gives us a 50% exposure to the short side. Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com Portfolio Update Archive Trades: Index Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades Performance: Portfolio Long Only Long/Short Index Portfolio 2010* (2.5%) (2.0%) Annual 1973-2009* 13.6% 18.8% GrQ/4 Portfolio 2010* (2.2%) 0.0% Annual 2000-2009* 13.6% 20.3% GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2010* 3.7% 6.0% Annual 1999-2009* 5.8% 22.3% GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2010** 1.0% N/A Annual 2001-2009** 16.0% N/A GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA * Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since. ** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade. Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com Current Positions: Index Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Long QID 02/03/2010 20.89 21.30 1.96% GrQ/4 Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Short FXI 02/03/2010 39.94 37.57 5.93% Short IAI 02/03/2010 26.69 25.83 3.22% Cash x 2 GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio* Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Short UFS 02/03/2010 53.97 50.19 7.00% Short TOL 02/03/2010 19.63 18.65 4.99% Short COF 02/03/2010 37.15 35.36 4.82% Short JNS 02/03/2010 12.06 11.98 0.66% Cash x 4 GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio** Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss Long MZZ 02/03/2010 22.22 23.60 6.21% Long MZZ 02/03/2010 22.22 23.60 6.21% Long TWM 02/03/2010 25.92 27.50 6.10% Long TWM 02/03/2010 25.92 27.50 6.10% Long QID 02/03/2010 20.89 21.30 1.96% Long QID 02/03/2010 20.89 21.30 1.96% Cash x 19