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Daily Trend and Trade Review

February 15, 2017

Trader Talk

The trend momentum power rating remains a strong 70% uptrend.

As Sherlock said, the game is afoot.

Something major is happening, though, surprisingly, the yin and yang of what comes next has become even more muddled.

First blush, today’s modest acceleration of the uptrend is exactly as the bulls would want to see as a prelude to a royal melt-up, which is required to keep the rally going.

However, the VIX also rallied – and HARD - with the gains the most we have seen since election night, when stock markets around the world reacted first violently to President Trump’s surprised victory, before reversing the other way.

Great for our long though hedged positioning, though tough to decipher what the direct mixed messages means for the future.

Had the VIX fallen, then I would be screaming the melt-up had begun.

Had the VIX risen, as it did, and stocks had closed in the red, then I would be screaming that the top was in.

Now? The confusion deepens, enhancing our belief that our long while hedged positioning is the optimal approach.

Current positioning for the Index/VIX/Hedge Portfolio is 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for tracking purposes.

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist

Portfolio Update Archive

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