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Daily Trend and Trade Review

February 16, 2017

Trader Talk

The trend momentum power rating remains a strong 70% uptrend.

The market remains on the cusp of a major move in a set-up I call decision time, where some technical elements argue for a hard correction, while others call for the melt-up to continue.

Case in point, the weekly ADX (maroon line) is trending up, suggesting this melt-up is for real, and overbought conditions will stay in place till that momentum monitoring line turns down.

To counter that, while the daily ADX (grey line) is also trending north, it has reached the fourth highest level in over two years, with past such spikes to this level highlighting trend turning points as shown in the chart.

The bears are loaded for the correction, and will either be proved right, or they will be forced to cover to drive the melt-up to the next level.

The trend trading indicator (green line bottom of chart) is poised to cross above the white high risk exit line, should the latter become reality, while the TZA and TVIX hedges remain in place ready to profit should the former land next.

Current positioning for the Index/VIX/Hedge Portfolio is 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for tracking purposes.

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist

Portfolio Update Archive

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