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Daily Trend and Trade Review

March 8, 2017

Trader Talk

The trend momentum power rating remains a strong 70% uptrend.

The stock indexes remain in position to suffer a scary dive, which should drive the indicators in the chart below quickly into the oversold zone, which will be our cue to adjust the TZA and TVIX hedges.

The dotted red line remains the projected path going forward, as a series of ever-accelerating zigs and zags lands, where each dip leads to higher prices, and every move higher is followed by a larger corrective swoon.

The red arrow is the expected fate once the bull topping process completes, and the next great bear begins.

The big picture is one of a staggered melt-up, followed a royal crash.

Note how the NASDAQ closed on the steepest of three yellow uptrend lines, which leaves that key index in danger of suffering a 2%+ mega swoon day once that uptrend line is finally breached.

The daily ADX (grey line) continues to fall from its third highest level in over two years, indicating a sideways churn period and possible change in trend is underway.

That expected dive could be the start of the long awaited big one, though our work continues to suggest that such a financial day of reckoning is slated to land later this year.

For now, holding longs, while hedged, remains the optimal allocation, though get ready for some rapid fire shorter term trades on the hedging side of the portfolio.

Current positioning for the Index/VIX/Hedge Portfolio is 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX. This portfolio is up over 19% in 2017.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for tracking purposes. This portfolio is up over 10% in 2017.

Next update after the markets close Thursday.

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist

Portfolio Update Archive

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