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Daily Trend and Trade Review

March 9, 2017

Trader Talk

The trend momentum power rating remains a strong 70% uptrend.

Today I will focus on what I believe are the three most important technical developments of late.

The first is the steepest yellow uptrend, where the NASDAQ continues to find support, though remains in danger of suffering a 2%+ mega one day wonder dive if when that uptrend line gets breached for real.

The second is the light blue VIX hedge line (bottom part of chart,) which is finally dropping from the extreme stock market overbought zone. A cross of the light blue line below the dotted blue line will signal when buying the stock market long products, TNA and XIV is called for, from the current hedge stock market long products, TZA and TVIX.

The third is the green trend trading indicator line poised to cross above the upper white high risk exit line, which would be a massive signal to take profits on long positions, including in the 401K portfolio.

Thus, those three technical elements are battling each other for what happens next, and we expect a victor for one of the three very shortly. With the FED expected to raise interest rates next week, we could be facing a scenario where what Janet giveth, Janet taketh.

For now, holding longs, while hedged, remains the optimal allocation, though get ready for some rapid fire shorter term trades on the hedging side of the portfolio.

Current positioning for the Index/VIX/Hedge Portfolio is 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX. This portfolio is up over 19% in 2017.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for tracking purposes. This portfolio is up over 10% in 2017.

Next update after the markets close Friday.

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist

Portfolio Update Archive

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