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Last Update Wed Apr-26-17 at 5:14 pm

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Weekly Trend and Trade Review

March 10, 2017

Trader Talk

The trend momentum remains a strong 70% uptrend.

Overall, the AK strategy remains bullish, while hedged with a small amount of TZA and TVIX, with the odds of a royal melt-up landing similar to a bull ending peak and reversal.

The first chart below shows the weekly view of the usual trading pattern when in high risk blow off bull years, overlaid over some past blow off bull years, with the white lines to the left of the chart the NASDAQ for 2017.

The prime question remains whether we are in the peaking area of the starting rally - where a swoon and corrective churn lands next versus the rally pushing to the 20%+ gain area for the NASDAQ on the year, which would put us in the middle rally position sooner than we expect?

Such a continuation of the rally would be great for us, though brings forward the financial day of reckoning to the spring/summer, rather than the expected fall.

The dotted red line in the next chart remains the projected path going forward, as a series of ever-accelerating zigs and zags lands, where each dip leads to higher prices, and every move higher is followed by a larger corrective swoon.

The red arrow is the expected fate once the bull topping process completes, and the next great bear begins.

The big picture is one of a staggered melt-up, followed a royal crash.

The daily ADX (grey line) continues to roll over from the third highest level in over two years, indicating a sideways churn period and likely change in trend has begun.

For now, holding longs, while hedged, remains the optimal allocation.

Current positioning for the Index/Hedge/VIX portfolio remain 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for performance tracking purposes.

Performance-wise, the 401K portfolio rose 0.28% on the week, and is currently up 10.88% in 2017.

The Index/Hedge/VIX Trader portfolio advanced 0.71% this week, and is currently up 20.27% in 2017.

Next update after the markets close Monday.

Have a great weekend!

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist

Portfolio Update Archive

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