AlphaKing.com - Bull or Bear, We Don't Care!
Last Update Fri Oct-20-17 at 6:42 pm

Back to Archive

  AlphaKing.com  

Weekly Trend and Trade Review


March 17, 2017


Trader Talk

The trend momentum remains a strong 70% uptrend.

Overall, the AK strategy remains bullish, while hedged with a small amount of TZA and TVIX, with the odds of a royal melt-up landing similar to a bull ending peak and reversal.

The first chart below shows the usual trading pattern when in high risk blow off bull years, overlaid over some past blow off bull years, with the white lines to the left of the chart the NASDAQ for 2017.

The prime question remains whether we are in the peaking area of the starting rally - where a swoon and corrective churn lands next versus the rally pushing to the 20%+ gain area for the NASDAQ on the year, which would put us in the middle rally position sooner than we expect?

Such a continuation of the rally would be great for us, though brings forward the financial day of reckoning to the spring/summer, rather than the expected fall.

The dotted red line in the next chart remains the projected path going forward, as a series of ever-increasing zigs and zags land over the next few months, where each dip leads to higher prices, and every move higher is followed by a larger corrective swoon.

The red arrow is the expected fate once this staggered melt-up bull topping process completes, and the next great bear begins.

The daily ADX (grey line) continues to roll over from the third highest level in over two years, indicating a sideways churn period and likely change in trend is underway.

For now, holding longs, while hedged, remains the optimal allocation.

Current positioning for the Index/Hedge/VIX portfolio remain 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for performance tracking purposes.

Performance-wise, the 401K portfolio rose 0.44% on the week, and is currently up 11.37% in 2017 (includes $0.274 dividend paid on 3/17/2017.)

The Index/Hedge/VIX Trader portfolio advanced 0.46% this week, and is currently up 20.82% in 2017.

Next update after the markets close Monday.

Have a great weekend!

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist
AlphaKing.com

Portfolio Update Archive

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

The AlphaKing.com website, and the emails we send, are for information and educational purposes only. Trading stocks is a high risk investment strategy. The information is neither a recommendation to, nor an offer to buy or sell securities or stocks. Traders should do their own due diligence research before acting on any financial information, whatever the source of that information, including the AlphaKing.com website and newsletters. If you act on any of the information furnished by AlphaKing.com, either on our website, email newsletter, or anywhere else, you do so at your own risk. Read the Full Disclaimer.


Copyright © 2006 AlphaKing.com. All Rights Reserved. Privacy Policy