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Daily Trend and Trade Review

March 23, 2017

Trader Talk

The trend momentum power rating remains a strong 70% uptrend.

The stock indexes finished weak today, as news filtered in late in the day the House vote on healthcare reform has been postponed, which set-ups a continuation of the dive to end the week tomorrow, which is in-line with the dotted red pattern shown in the chart below.

The red arrow shows what likely happens later this year, once the expected staggered melt-up completes the bull market off the 2009 lows.

There does seem to be a direct link with President Trumpís agenda and stock market action, thus it appears we likely are also in for a wild ride on that side of things too.

The expectation is any pessimistic outcome is likely soon matched with an optimistic reversal, which is followed just as quickly with a pessimistic knock-down.

The bigger question of whether 2017 ends with a larger blow-off to new highs, or suffer a 1987-style reversal somewhere along the way, likely depends on how all of this political back and forth plays out.

For now, political war and indecision seems to be our reality over the spring and into the summer, when major stock market and political decisions are slated to be made in a definitive and lasting way.

Current positioning for the Index/VIX/Hedge Portfolio is 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX. This portfolio is up over 21% in 2017.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for tracking purposes. This portfolio is up over 11% in 2017.

Next update after the markets close Friday.

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist

Portfolio Update Archive

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