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Daily Trend and Trade Review

April 13, 2017

Trader Talk

The trend momentum power rating remains a strong 70% uptrend.

The stock market is closed Friday for the Easter holiday, though I will publish the weekly overview Friday afternoon, while tonight I will focus on the shorter-term set-up, which has moved into a critical stage.

Overall, the set-up shows the trend remaining up thus holding longs with the bulk of the portfolio is called for - while the Hedge indicator continues to signal to hedge those long positions with a small amount of TZA and TVIX.

Today we took a step down the mini-crash path, and we should see some heavy downside follow through selling Monday and Tuesday next week, likely followed with a rip-roaring rebound that likely makes new highs.

Both the contrarian and hedge indicators are moving fast toward the oversold extreme zone, which will be my cue to remove the TZA and TVIX hedges, and potentially go fully the other way via TNA and SVXY.

While THE top may be in, the more likely path remains the dotted red line into the red arrow as shown in the chart below.

For now, holding longs while hedged with a small amount of TZA and TVIX remains the optimal allocation, where I expect to adjust those positions on the next big move stocks make.

Current positioning for the Index/VIX/Hedge Portfolio is 94% QLD, 5% TZA, 1% TVIX. This portfolio is up over 20% in 2017.

The 401K portfolio is in a stock index mutual fund, with QQQ used for tracking purposes. This portfolio is up over 10% in 2017.

Next update Friday afternoon.

Kevin Wilde Kevin Wilde
Chief Trading Strategist

Portfolio Update Archive

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