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Daily Trend and Trade Review


December 30, 2009


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level once again today, with very modest gains going into the close run on very low volume. Officially, the Dow Industrials closed up a scant 0.03% on NYSE volume of 2.6 billion shares, while the NASDAQ rose 0.1% on 1.3 billion. The leadership profile remains positive, with 257 stocks making new highs versus 46 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator for the NASDAQ. We have new trades below.

The bulls are determined to end the year on a high, fighting all attempts at a sell-off. All eyes are on the start to January, which should be very interesting, and potentially very volatile, as traders all return from the holidays and tip their hand to how they believe 2010 will go. Volume has been missing in action for many months, and that should end starting Monday next week. A rapid blow-off advance to Dow 12,000 remains very much on the trading cards, though only if next week avoids heavy distribution selling. We will continue to hold a high cash position until the risk of a harsh reversal diminishes.

401K investors should have ½ of their portfolio invested in a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ½ remaining in a money market fund.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: We are selling the remaining TWM position and buying a half position of QQQQ

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: We are buying to cover the XHB short position

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: We are buying to cover the CHA and ILMN short positions

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: We are selling MZZ


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2009* 36.8% (0.1%)
Annual 1973-2008* 13.1% 19.4%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2009* 20.3% 13.5%
Annual 2000-2008* 13.0% 21.1%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2009* 0.3% 18.9%
Annual 1999-2008* 6.5% 22.8%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2009** 21.8% N/A
Annual 2001-2008** 15.6% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long TWM 11/12/2009 28.77 24.57 (14.60%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long EWS 12/24/2009 11.35 11.55 1.76%
Short XHB 11/12/2009 15.28 15.28 0%
Long IYM 12/24/2009 60.63 60.56 (0.12%)
Cash x 1

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Short CHA 11/13/2009 45.57 41.39 9.17%
Short ILMN 11/12/2009 33.26 30.67 7.79%
Long RYAAY 12/30/2009 26.80 26.94 0.52%
Long CELG 12/24/2009 56.61 56.42 (0.34%)
Long FIG 12/29/2009 4.64 4.56 (1.72%)
Long EVVV 12/24/2009 13.77 13.48 (2.11%)
Cash x 2

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long CQP 12/24/2009 11.80 12.75 8.05%
Long KFN 12/29/2009 5.30 5.47 3.21%
Long PLAB 12/29/2009 4.50 4.56 1.33%
Long KLIC 12/30/2009 5.35 5.42 1.31%
Long INSU 12/30/2009 22.10 22.39 1.31%
Long FRZ 12/30/2009 4.44 4.48 0.90%
Long GFF 12/24/2009 12.34 12.41 0.57%
Long EV 12/30/2009 30.62 30.62 0%
Long UMC 12/29/2009 3.76 3.75 (0.27%)
Long THC 12/30/2009 5.26 5.20 (1.14%)
Long NM 12/24/2009 6.18 6.10 (1.29%)
Long SMOD 12/24/2009 6.70 6.61 (1.34%)
Long JBLU 12/24/2009 5.73 5.50 (4.01%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.51 (11.88%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.51 (11.88%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.51 (11.88%)
Long MZZ 11/13/2009 24.41 21.51 (11.88%)
Cash x 8

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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