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Daily Trend and Trade Review


January 6, 2010


Trader Talk

The major stock indexes traded back and forth the unchanged level once again today, with a mixed close run on slightly lower volume.

Officially, the Dow Industrials rose a scant 0.02% on NYSE volume of 5.5 billion shares, while the NASDAQ fell 0.3% on 2.3 billion. The leadership profile continues to accelerate its positive tone, with 798 stocks making new highs versus 73 making new lows.

The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading Indicator. We have no new trades at this time.

The market is fast approaching a make or break decision, with the reaction to Friday’s jobs report the likely D-Day for that decision. The market responds well, then the number of stocks making new highs should explode over the 1000 mark, something we haven’t seen for many years. The market responds poorly and a major top may be in, potentially a life-changing one.

The NASDAQ is slowly closing the gap left by the surging Monday open, and that technical line in the sand should highlight the bull or bear win. The low of the gap is at 2285, and we closed at 2301 today (see intraday chart over the past 10 trading days below.) Any opening gap below 2285 would leave an Island reversal pattern, where excited traders bought in a hurry to create the gap, before trading ran out of steam, with any ending gap leaving a ton of traders trapped and wanting out, which usually prevents and reverses any future rally attempt. Island reversal moves are some of the most important and clear technical events seen at important tops and bottoms. Overall the trend remains the bulls to lose, though risk of a reversal remains extreme, and either the bulls or the bears are slated to land a massive victory going into the weekend. So buckle up, lads, as things are about to get a whole lot more interesting.

401K investors should have ½ of their portfolio invested in a stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual fund, with the other ½ remaining in a money market fund.

The Index portfolio is ½ invested in QQQQ with the other ½ remaining in cash.

Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist AlphaKing.com.

Portfolio Update Archive


Trades:

Index Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/4 ETF Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio: No new trades

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio: No new trades


Performance:

Portfolio Long Only Long/Short
Index Portfolio 2010* 0.5% 0.5%
Annual 1973-2009* 13.6% 18.8%
GrQ/4 Portfolio 2010* 2.4% 2.4%
Annual 2000-2009* 13.6% 20.3%
GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio 2010* 2.3% 2.3%
Annual 1999-2009* 5.8% 22.3%
GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio 2010** 2.9% N/A
Annual 2001-2009** 16.0% N/A


GrQ/25 M100 NASDAQ S&P500 DJIA

* Compounded results before commissions, dividends, or interest income during those periods when portfolio invested in money market funds or short. Back-tested data used to compile results prior to 2004, actual trades since.
** Performance tracked by Marketocracy.com, and results include commissions of $0.05 per share per trade.

Trade the AlphaKing Portfolios at FolioFN.com

Current Positions:

Index Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long QQQQ 12/31/2009 46.25 46.14 (0.24%)

GrQ/4 Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long IYM 12/24/2009 60.63 63.58 4.87%
Long EWS 12/24/2009 11.35 11.86 4.49%
Cash x 2

GrQ/8 Hedge Fund Portfolio*
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long FIG 12/29/2009 4.64 5.11 10.13%
Long RYAAY 12/30/2009 26.80 27.91 4.14%
Long CELG 12/24/2009 56.61 56.39 (0.39%)
Long EVVV 12/24/2009 13.77 13.06 (5.16%)
Cash x 4

GrQ/25 Small Cap Portfolio**
Position Entry Date Entry Current Profit/Loss
Long KFN 12/29/2009 5.30 6.75 27.36%
Long CQP 12/24/2009 11.80 14.37 21.78%
Long KLIC 12/30/2009 5.35 6.08 13.64%
Long THC 12/30/2009 5.26 5.90 12.17%
Long UMC 12/29/2009 3.76 4.18 11.17%
Long NM 12/24/2009 6.18 6.71 8.58%
Long SMOD 12/24/2009 6.70 7.14 6.57%
Long INSU 12/30/2009 22.10 22.77 3.03%
Long EV 12/30/2009 30.62 31.26 2.09%
Long JBLU 12/24/2009 5.73 5.73 0%
Long GFF 12/24/2009 12.34 12.31 (0.24%)
Long PLAB 12/29/2009 4.50 4.29 (4.67%)
Long FRZ 12/30/2009 4.44 3.82 (13.96%)
Cash x 12

Results are tabulated using the opening price the day following a new trading signal, and exclude commissions, dividends, or interest paid on cash balances during sell periods. Stock prices highlighted in blue are temporary - using the end of day quote the day a new buy or sell signal is generated - with the final price adjusted the following trading day when the opening price is available. Past performance is no guarantee of future success

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