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Bull or Bear, We Don't Care! Proven success in all markets
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Index Strategy up 490% since 2000, up 70% in 2008, long/short
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Sample Newsletter
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Weekly Trend and Trade Review |
April 17, 2009 |
Trader Talk
The short term momentum oscillators remain positive, confirming the bullish stance of the AlphaKing Trading indicator. The accumulation/distribution profile remains bullish, with only one distribution day since the market bottomed on March 9th, countered with a slew of higher volume accumulation days. The leadership profile is the lone indicator bearish, with 37 stocks making new 52 week highs versus 76 stocks making new 52 week lows.
The 4% rule remains positive, confirmed with bullish Federal Reserve policy. The VXO volatility indicator closed the week at 35, continuing the pullback in fear, though remains well above the single digit level that represents overbought complacency. The Elliott wave count continues to suggest the first stage of a major rally into the summer is nearing its end - in either a new bull market wave 1 or a bear market counter trend wave A rally - and thus the next correction slated to start once this initial first stage rally completes.
Traditional seasonal trends have us looking for a rally into the summer, while the Presidential cycle suggests the year of the bear remains alive and well in 2009. The Benner-Fibonacci cycle will remain bullish until 2010. The AlphaKing combination cycle sees a rally into the summer, possibly extending into the fall.
Summary:
All the investment ducks except new highs/new lows remain in the bull camp - including our AlphaKing Trading indicator - with this week seeing another solid victory for the bulls, with the volume trend remaining constructive to the bull case. We had expected this Energizer Bunny rally to propel the stock indexes toward a rapid move to test the 200 day moving averages, and today the Value Line Arithmetic index hit that target. It is impossible to tell if that in itself is enough to put an end to the advance as a set up to the next correction, or if one or more other indexes have to confirm the 200 retest.
From a trading perspective, most stock indexes remain too close to their 50 day moving averages - technical lines that, at this juncture, we deem a terrific lower risk entry opportunity - to warrant aggressive profit-taking at current levels, lest we become too focused on short term swings that we miss the larger trend picture. We will continue to assess the stock indexes position in relation to their moving averages - with the 200 day MA for the Dow, S&P500, and NASDAQ representing an excellent exit point to lock in profits on longs, and 50 day MAs the back-up-the-truck buy point - and adjust our portfolios accordingly.
Our overall Big Picture expectation continues to call for the current rally off the March lows to test the 200 day MAs for the stock indexes, followed by a corrective pullback to retest the 50 day MAs (with new bear market lows possible if the pullback is an Elliott Wave B,) all leading to the mother of all rallies into the summer that leaves the Dow Industrials near the 12,000 level. Once there, we should have a pretty good idea if 2010 and beyond belongs to the bulls or a resumption of the bear market headed into depression.
So stay long the market for now, with 401K investors remaining invested in stock index, or aggressive growth, mutual funds. Have a great weekend!
Kevin Wilde, Chief Trading Strategist, AlphaKing.com
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